While rice prices have fallen quite sharply in the past time, but the pressure off the world market continue to rise.
On the Asian market transactions, although offer price remains nearly 500USD/tan 5% broken rice from Vietnam and nearly 600 per ton of rice 5% broken in Thailand, but the transaction price actually relatively lower than rates on offer. Specifically, the transaction cost 5% broken of Vietnam in the past week was reduced to 450 per ton FOB.
Thus compared to the peak gain from a few months ago, the prices of 5% broken rice exports in Vietnam has dropped only one half, but compared to early 2007, the price is still higher than 60%.
Export difficulties, reduced world prices, rice inventories in many countries, bank loan interest rates as too high pressure off to the rice price in the country. Purchasing prices of 5% broken rice in Mekong Delta has reduced 5.500d/kg (approximately 332 USD / MT), paddy price reduced 4000 - 4.500d/kg.
According to statistics, output of winter-spring and summer-autumn rice this year is estimated at 29.6 million tons, up 2.4 million tons over last year. If the last months of year, crops are not affected by weather and pests, the output can reach nearly 9 million tons and rice yield in the estimated 38.6 million tons, up 2.6 million tons compared 2007.
While grain output increased strength is our country′s rice exports Left off, the volume of rice exported in nine months just to reach 2.445 million tons, down 6.7% over the same period. This makes quality of paddy, rice inventories now quite large.
Mekong Delta provinces are currently harvesting for three, the price decreased, pressure increased inventory quickly. On the world market supply is growing rapidly in a short time because the rice price increase is too high causing many countries focus on increasing rice-growing area while increasing investment, intensive farming. While demand for imports due to a slowdown of the market still standing outside waiting for more discount. In addition, the strong U.S. dollar to price, the price most basic materials, agriculture, forestry and fisheries is also significantly reduced price of rice causes the drag reduction.
With evolutions of the current world economy, world market of goods and the supply and demand of food in general and rice in particular, forecasting may also reduce the threshold 400USD/tan.
Situation in rice export in September and early October:
In September the country exported 444,470 tonnes of rice worth 260 million USD, up 23.25% in quantity but decrease in value compared to 9.76% in August; 3.08% increase in volume and up to 79.2 % in value over the same period. So in the nine months of 3.736 million tons of rice production, turnover of 2445 billion, down 6.7% in volume but up 90.56% in value over the same period.
In the first 10 days on rice export in October 2008 the country reached 112,600 tons, worth $ 53.56 million, up 29% in volume, but decreased 19.19% in value over the same period.
In the context of the domestic rice supply is plentiful but the export activities by the Left have difficulty off, so has the Ministry of Industry and Commerce Ministry of Finance has offered 0% for the applicable tax rice exports.
Malaysia have increased reserve requirements three times that of rice up in May 2008, the Ministry of Agriculture Malaysia is looking to import rice from Vietnam, if standard. Storage reserves of rice to Malaysia 5 / 2008 about 92.000tan enough to meet domestic demand of about 3 months.